Injured Chargers Squander Unexpected Gifts
» Posted by GridIronMine on January 21, 2008«
This article appears in the Patriots Football Weekly and PFW online. The VF percentages quoted in this article refer to the graph presented in the hardcopy of the PFW, which uses team-dependent VF. The online tools use the team-independent (or NFL average) VF.
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The Patriots started the AFC championship as a heavy favorite over the Chargers. GridIronMine's Victory Forecast (VF) system at the opening kick showed the Pats as having a 85% chance of winning.
Unlike last week's game against the Jags, this game was more of a defensive battle. In fact, the Patriots did not score any points on their first three possessions. In the 17 previous games, the Patriots scored on their initial possession in 14 games and on their second possession in the other 3 games. Clearly, the Chargers defense (perhaps with an assist from the wind) came to play.
The first key play was the first Tom Brady interception, courtesy of Quentin Jammer. This increased the Chargers' VF from 19% to 27%. Their VF increased to 33% when they had a second and goal at the eight. In what would be the story of the game, the Chargers did not score a touchdown, instead throwing two incomplete passes. The Chargers VF was 27% (6% lower than 2nd down) following the filed goal.
The Chargers' experience in this game within the 10 yard line showed the considerable difference between having first down and goal inside the five versus inside the ten. We discussed this in a previous article; to summarize, our research shows that the chance of scoring a touchdown when starting with a first and goal on the nine yard line is only 53%. Coaches may repeat over and over that you have to score touchdowns in the red zone (true), but a touchdown when starting with a first and goal at the nine is really, over the entire league, is only somewhat likely.
The battle after this point, for the rest of the half, seemed to be one of interceptions. Philip Rivers threw one to Asante Samuel, which increased the Pats' VF by 8% and led to a Pats' touchdown. At this point, with an eight-point lead, the Pats' VF was 89%. Rivers threw another interception three plays into the Chargers' next drive, but this one only decreased the Chargers' VF by 2%, because it was a long pass. It was actually similar to a 35 yard punt (except it came on first down). The Pats had a three and out, punted, and the Chargers drove for a half-ending field goal. The Pats' VF at the end of the half stood at 82%, as they led 14-9.
The second half opened with the Patriots taking possession. However, their first drive ended in a Drayton Florence interception of Brady. This increased the Chargers' VF 7% to 22%. Their subsequent drive netted them at one point a first and 10 at the Pats' 13. While their first two drives ended in field goals, in large part because both contained a first and goal at the nine, this time the Chargers were in good shape. In fact, they had third and 1 at the Pats 4 yard line, and the subsequent 2 yard loss decreased the Chargers' VF from 32% to 25%, a whopping 7%. This is because not only did they not make the first down, but they took themselves out of an ideal time to go for the first down on fourth down by losing two yards. The Chargers had to settle for a field goal, and their VF stood at 25%.
The Pats took the next possession the length of the field, but had an even worse first and goal than the Chargers did; the ball was on the 10 yard line. Their VF went from 82% to 85% after Wes Welker caught a pass to the 2, but Brady threw an interception to Antonio Cromartie on 3rd down, which decreased their VF to 72%. Had Cromartie simply taken a knee in the end zone instead of running the ball out to the 5, it would have been an even larger swing.
The Pats forced the Chargers to punt and marched the ball right down the field for a touchdown and a 21-12 lead. Their VF stood at 84%, and there was just over 12 minutes to go. The Chargers took the ball and had a fourth down and 10 at the Pats' 36 yard line. With just over 9 minutes to go, the Chargers chose to punt. This is despite the knowledge that that Pats have a great offense. Certainly, GridIronMine.com thinks this decision was a significant mistake. The Pats, in fact, held the ball for the rest of the game. The key play on the drive was probably the brilliant driving catch by Faulk on third and 11, which increased the Pats' VF by 4% to 89%. Another conversion to Faulk on a third and three, and the Pats' VF was 96%, and they were on their way to Arizona.