Same Story in the Post Season
» Posted by GridIronMine on January 13, 2008«
This article appears in the Patriots Football Weekly and PFW online. The VF percentages quoted in this article refer to the graph presented in the hardcopy of the PFW, which uses team-dependent VF. The online tools use the team-independent (or NFL average) VF.
(click to enlarge)
The Patriots started the divisional playoff game as a heavy favorite over the Jags. GridIronMine's Victory Forecast (VF) system at the opening kick showed the Pats as having a 85% chance of winning.
The game was an exciting, up-and-down the field game from the start. The first possession of the game went to the Jags, and had two interesting plays. The Jags went for the first down on fourth down and one from the Patriots 43 yard line. We have advocated going for 4th down in these kind of situations this year, especially when facing the Patriots' unstoppable offense. Garrard completed a 34 yard pass to Lewis, increasing the Jags' VF by 6%, to 26%.
This gave the Jags first and goal on the 9, quickly became third and goal at the 8. Garrard completed a pass to Jones for a touchdown, but replays showed that Garrard's left leg was actually on the ground before the ball left his hand. Bill Belichick appeared primed to challenge the call, but the Jags got the ball snapped on the point after and he still had the red flag in hand. This was a rare mistake by Belichick. Of course, it was not certain that the call would be overturned, but it clearly could have been. At that point in the game a touchdown is 13% better for the Jaguars than a field goal.
After the Patriots drove the length of the field to tie the score at 7, Garrard fumbled on the next Jags' series, and Vrabel recovered. This play increased the Pats' VF by 10%, from 76% to 86%, and the subsequent short touchdown drive left the Pats with a VF of 90%.
The Jags tied the score at 14, and then the Pats drove the length of the field again near the end of the first half. But two key plays stopped them from scoring. The obvious one was the missed field goal by Gostkowski, which decreased the Pats' VF by 7%, to 69%. However, the forgotten play was the chop block called on Stephen Neal, which decreased the Pats' VF by 4%. The play changed a third and 6, which the Pats had been making (and continued to make) all day, into a second and 23. This is what really forced the field goal in the first place.
Also forgotten, especially given the way the game was going, was that the Jags did not score given 53 seconds, starting from their 25 with two timeouts. In particular, Garrard missed a pass to Northcutt that would have given the Jags great field position (probably around midfield), which decreased the Jags' VF by 3%, and then it decreased further when they failed to get a first down.
The second half belonged to the Pats. They took the opening kick and marched down for a touchdown. The key play on the drive was not the touchdown, but a 13 yard completion from Brady to Gaffney on 3rd and 3 at the 19. This play increased the Pats' VF by 5%, to 82%.
Next, the Jags tried to respond, down 21-14. They drove to the outskirts of the red zone, and faced a third and 11 from the 21 yard line. Garrard made a perfect pass to Northcutt, but the pass was dropped. It led to a field goal that increased the Jags' VF by 2%, to 22%. However, if Northcutt would have made the catch, the Jags would have had the ball around the 2 yard line. This would have made the Jags' VF 29%. This was perhaps the key play of the second half.
The Pats scored quickly to go up 28-17, and the Jags needed to answer to remain in the game. They drove inside the Pats' 10, but faced a fourth and goal at the 7. Jack Del Rio decided to kick a field goal, which did not change the Jags' VF at all. Additionally, one must take into account when an offense is nearly unstoppable like the Patriots. This makes Del Rio's decision even worse. When the other team's punter is taking the night off, you have to go for the touchdown in that situation. Needless to say, the Jags did not stop the Patriots, as they went right back up by two scores (11 points) on their next possession, effectively ending the game.