Patriots survive Eagles

» Posted by GridIronMine on November 28, 2007«

This article appears in the Patriots Football Weekly and PFW online. The VF percentages quoted in this article refer to the graph presented in the hardcopy of the PFW, which uses team-dependent VF. The online tools use the team-independent (or NFL average) VF.

(click to enlarge)

The Patriots started week 12 as usual, as a heavy favorite over the Eagles. GridIronMine's Victory Forecast (VF) system at the opening kick showed the Pats as having a 94% chance of winning.

This game might rank as the most surprising game of the entire NFL season. With Donovan McNabb out, no one (including GridIronMine.com) gave the Eagles much of chance to come close to a victory.

Because the Pats were overwhelming favorites at the beginning of the game, the Eagles spent the first half primarily keeping the Pats' VF away from 99%---a feat in itself. After Samuel's interception return put the Pats' VF at 98%, Westbrook's touchdown run cut it back to 92%. Similarly, Evans' touchdown run put the Pats' VF at 95%, but a Feeley to Lewis touchdown pass cut it to 89%. Finally, after a Pats field goal, the teams traded touchdowns once more, leaving the Pats with a VF of 85% right before the half.

One interesting play in the first half occurred when the Eagles also got a 4% increase in VF on their successful onside kick after Lewis' score. GridIronMine.com wonders why more teams do not try this against the Patriots---when a team scores on virtually every drive, why not risk giving them the ball at the 45 in exchange for the chance of taking over possession yourself?

After receiving the second half kickoff, the Pats' VF stood at 87%. We note that while the Pats had a larger lead at the half than they did at the beginning of the game, their VF is lower because the effect of the Pats being the favorite to win the game is lessened---half the game is over and the Pats haven't taken care of business.

The next key play was the offensive interference call on Randy Moss that nullified a touchdown.
The penalty itself decreased the Pats' VF by 2%. Then, this penalty led to a failed third down conversion and a missed field goal by Gostkowski, which additionally decreased the Pats' VF by 3 and 5%, respectively. Overall, this sequence cost the Pats 11% in VF.

The Eagles then took the ball after the missed field goal and marched down the field and scored a touchdown. This drive was noteworthy because of the touchdown play. It came on a Feeley to Brown pass on 3rd and 4 at the 8 yard line and resulted in a 13% increase in VF for the Eagles. Generally speaking, an 8-yard touchdown pass is not that large of a swing in VF, but in GridIronMine's system, a swing from a three point deficit to a four point lead is one of the largest swings that can occur on an offensive touchdown.

The next key play was an offsides penalty on Trent Cole on 4th and 3 when the Pats were punting. This penalty is considered by GridIronMine.com to be unforgivable---the Pats have the best offense in the league, and blocking a punt occurs at most a few times per year per team, so presumably the Eagles' special teams coach instructed his players to make sure they did not jump offsides. This play resulted in an 8% VF increase for the Patriots, as the Patriots not only retained possession, but had the ball in good field position at their own 45. The drive ended in failed 3rd and 4th down plays that decreased the Pats' VF by 8 and 10%, respectively, but this does not mitigate the incredibly poor judgment of jumping offsides.

Finally, the Pats converted the key 3rd down of the game. With 2:27 to go, they were faced with a 3rd and 1, where a first down virtually ices the game. Matt Light committed a false start, costing the Pats 8% in VF (because 3rd and 6 is so much harder to convert than 3rd and 1), but Brady calmly threw to Gaffney to convert the 3rd and 6. This play made it such that the Eagles would get the ball back with no time outs and less than 30 seconds left at around their own 20---which is almost certain victory for the Patriots---so accordingly increased the Pats VF from 79% to a near-certain 98%.