Top Ten Plays for 2007

» Posted by GridIronMine on December 31, 2007«

There are no doubt many ways to judge the value of a play. GridIronMine.com uses a mathematically objective and completely innovative model. The significance of a play is determined by the Victory Forecast (VF) model developed by GridIronMine.com.
The model uses modern statistical analysis along with special end-game modeling to calculate the probability of victory for any game situation (point differential, time, scrimmage, down, distance, etc.). These plays were selected based on how much a each contributed to a team's victory (or loss) in term of the change in VF from the start of the play to the end. We ranked the approximately 41,000 plays this season to find the ten most significant plays.

Surprisingly, less than half of the top ten plays are touchdowns or turnovers. Not surprisingly, all the plays occurred in the fourth quarter or overtime when the game hung in balance. The largest VF change with more than 5 minutes remaining in regulation was 36% on Charles Woodson's fumble return for a touchdown in Green Bay's victory over Washington, which ranked 41st on our list.

The play that had the largest change in VF was a missed field goal at the end of a game. The very reliable Phil Dawson lined up for a very makable 40-yard field goal with 3 seconds left. However, Oakland's Tommy Kelly blocked the kick to steal a win for the Raiders. On this play the Brown's VF changed from 78% to 0%, as a 40 yard field goal is made by the average kicker about 78% of the time.
Another missed field goal made the top ten. Neil Rackers shanked a 32 yard field goal in overtime against the 49ers, which decreased the Cardinals' VF from 98% to 45%. Making a 32 yard field goal is a high probability event, and essentially the game becomes about even money when the Niners took over the ball.

The second most significant play was a penalty, and it was the play that saved the Patriots' perfect season. With 55 seconds left in the game and no time outs left, the Patriots faced a 4th down and 5 on the Ravens' 13 yard line. Tom Brady threw incomplete to Ben Watson, which put the Ravens' VF at 99%---all they had to do was kneel down twice to win. However, it was not to be because of a defensive holding penalty on Jamie Winborne. This decreased the Ravens' VF from 99% down to 27%---a startling change of 72%.

The third largest VF change occurred in the wild Tennessee-Houston game, where the Titans blew a 25 point lead and trailed by a point with 39 seconds to go. They had the ball on their own 37 yard line, but Kerry Collins hit Roydell Williams on a 46 yard pass, which increased the Titans VF 70% from 24% to 94%. Essentially, this play moved the Titans from out of even Hail Mary position into winning FG position.

Two key touchdown passes accounted for large changes in VF. The first occurred when Brett Favre threw a 57 yard TD pass to Greg Jennings against San Diego to give the Packers a 3 point lead with 2:03 to go. This play increased the Packers' VF by 57%. The second was a Brian Griese to Mushin Muhammad TD pass that gave the Bears a 3 point lead with 9 seconds to go and increased the Bears' VF by 55%. The Griese pass increased VF less, but the end result was a 99% VF for the Bears. The Packers still had to stop the Chargers on their last possession, so their VF stood only at 80%. The large increase in the Bears game occurred because the game was essentially over, whereas the large increase in the Packers game occurred because the Packers weren't close to scoring before the TD.

Two punt returns were huge plays. Leon Washington increased the Jets' VF by 59% (to 93%) when he returned a punt against the Steelers (in overtime) for 33 yards to the Steelers' 26 yard line. This play had such a large VF swing because they were now in field goal range in a situation where a field goal wins the game (and furthermore, it was first down, and there was no time pressure). A similar situation occurred when Brian Westbrook returned a punt against the Seahawks for 64 yards. The Eagles were down by 4 points at the time, with little time left, but had a first down at the Seahawks' 14 yard line. This situation is interesting because while Westbook increased the Eagles' VF by 51% with his key return, the Eagles lost the game when A. J. Feeley was intercepted three plays later.

Finally, two fumbles made the list. In a tie game with less than 2 minutes left, Matt Hasselback fumbled the snap when the Seahawks were driving for the winning score against the Cardinals---when they were almost in field goal range---and gave the Cards excellent field position at the Seahawks 46 yard line. This changed the Seahawks VF from 80% to 29%. It means the last field goal will likely be attempted by the Cards instead of the Seahawks; obviously, this is a key play. The second fumble to make the list was when Denver recovered a Tarvaris Jackson fumble on the 12. Jason Elam kicked a walk-off field goal on the next play, ending disappointing seasons for both teams.

We have presented the most significant individual plays of the season. They may not be the most glamorous. Moreover, there are sequences of plays that have together created a larger swing in VF. For example, Dallas went from 7% to 100% in the last two plays against Buffalo, see game. GridIronMine.com's Victory Forecast provides a different perspective on the game-changing plays of the season.