Picture Perfect
» Posted by GridIronMine on December 30, 2007«
This article appears in the Patriots Football Weekly and PFW online. The VF percentages quoted in this article refer to the graph presented in the hardcopy of the PFW, which uses team-dependent VF. The online tools use the team-independent (or NFL average) VF.
(click to enlarge)
The Patriots started week 17 as a 90% favorite over the Giants, according to GridIronMine.com's Victory Forecast (VF) system.
The first interesting play occurred on the first drive of the game. The Giants challenged an incomplete pass on a first down that, if successful, would have resulted in an 8 yard gain to the Patriots 10 yard line. On the surface, this seems like a challenge that should never be made---8 yards, as we have said in past columns, is less than 2%. However, in this case, the difference between second and 10 at the 18 and second and 2 at the 10 is a little over 3%. This is due to the highly desirable situation of having second and 2. Overall, GridIronMine.com feels that this was a marginal use of a challenge.
The second key play occurred on the second drive by the Giants, where they had a third down and 11 on their own 20. Manning threw a 15 yard pass to Toomer that would have achieved the first down, but Toomer dropped the ball. The Giants' VF before the play was 17%, and after it was 16%. If the pass would have been complete, the Giants' VF would have risen to to 23%; therefore, this dropped pass cost the Giants 7% in VF.
On the subsequent Patriots drive, they faced a third down and 15 at their own 46. Brady was sacked for a loss of 8 yards back to their own 38. However, Corey Webster was flagged for an illegal contact penalty, which gave the Pats a first down at the Giants' 49 yard line. Before the play, the Pats had a VF of 81%; the sack would have decreased that to 78%. However, the penalty increased their VF to 85%, for a cost to the Giants of 7% in VF. The penalty itself is long forgotten; what is remembered is the Brady to Moss touchdown pass that occurred 6 plays later at the end of the drive. Because New England is expected to score a from second and goal inside the five, the touchdown only increased the VF by 1%. As we have written all year, the plays that seem insignificant are often more important than the plays everyone remembers.
In the second half, the Giants opened up a 12 point lead, and the Pats faced a third down and 8 from their own 29 yard line. By this time, the Pats' VF had dropped to a startling 22%. However, the Pats used a Brady to Watson 15 yard pass to increase their VF to 28%. This was a huge 3rd down conversion.
The next key play was a 5 yard illegal formation penalty against the Pats, when they had first down and goal at the 1 yard line. This penalty, which is uncharacteristic of the Patriots, cost them 4% in VF. Our previous columns have noted that the chance of (eventually) scoring a touchdown on first and goal at the 1 is around 90%, while first and goal from the 6 is around 65%.
The play of the game was the 65-yard Brady to Moss touchdown pass. It increased the Patriots' VF from 37% to 64%, a phenomenal 27% increase. This was a big swing because it was a long pass, it was third down, and the lead changed hands. (The subsequent two-point conversion added another 4% VF.) According to VF, this offensive play was the Patriots' most valuable of the entire season. It is quite poetic that the record setting touchdown pass was also the most meaningful play in a purely objective measure like VF.
The Patriots now have a perfect season. The odds of that are very long, which explains why it has only happened twice in 75 years. But what are the odds? If each game is even money, the odds of finishing 16-0 are less than 1 chance in 65 thousand. Of course, the Patriots were heavy favorites in most games, so their odds are better than that. Supposing a team is a 95% (19 to 1) favorite in each game, the likely of a perfect season is 44%. But if a team is only an 85% favorite for every game, 16-0 is 7% long shot. Using the GridIronMine.com opening VF for the Patriots (they were 94% or higher in 9 games and the lowest was 70%), the likelihood of the Patriots winning all 16 in retrospect is only 1 in 8. In other words, if the 2007 season were played 100 times, the Patriots would win all their games about 12 times.