Pittsburgh no match for New England
» Posted by GridIronMine on December 11, 2007«
This article appears in the Patriots Football Weekly and PFW online. The VF percentages quoted in this article refer to the graph presented in the hardcopy of the PFW, which uses team-dependent VF. The online tools use the team-independent (or NFL average) VF.
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The Patriots started week 14, as a smaller favorite than usual. With the NFL's top-ranked defense coming to town on the heels of two close games, GridIronMine's Victory Forecast (VF) system at the opening kick showed the Pats as having a 74% chance of winning against the Steelers.
The Steelers stopped the Pats on a 3-and-out on the Pats' first possession. This year the Patriots start most games very fast and often put teams away in the first half, if not the first quarter. Through 13 games the Patriots have 7 touchdowns and 4 field goals on their opening drive. Pittsburgh joined the Colts as the only two teams to stop the Pats opening drive. In fact, Pittsburgh forced three 3-and-outs in the first half (one was a missed field goal) and another in the second half. This feat equals what Baltimore did the week before. Over the entire season, the Patriots have had only 11 first-half drives go 3-and-out, and 6 of those have come in the last two weeks.
On the other hand, the Steelers opening drive was in excess of 8 minutes that ended in a Jeff Reed field goal. It was on this drive that the Steelers achieved their maximum VF, 43%, which occurred when they got inside the Pats' 10. However, the Pats quickly regained their footing, increasing their VF to 80% and 85%, respectively, on two Brady-to-Moss touchdowns.
One key drive was Pittsburgh's last of the first half. This drive was impressive in many ways. First, the Steelers went for the first down on 4th and 1 on their own 49 and made it. This was clearly the right decision, given the short distance (it was much less than 1 yard) and the Patriots dominant offense (making a punt a bad play). Converting the first down increased the Steelers VF by 6%. Then, the Steelers lost yards on two penalties, the second of which came on an incomplete pass play. This set up either a 3rd and 15 (if the penalty is declined) or a 2nd and 25 (if it is accepted). Belichick accepted the penalty, which GridIronMine finds to be the correct choice (by 1% in VF). However, the Steelers gained 24 yards on the next two plays and then went for the first down again on 4th and 1 at the Patriots 40---again the right call, and it was converted, resulting in a 4% increase in VF.
However, Mike Tomlin got cold feet on the next 4th and short. After Roethlisberger threw incomplete on a miscommunication with Hines Ward, the Steelers had 4th and 2 with 2:36 left in the half. In general, this is a situation where teams should go for the first down; the point that is forgotten is that the chance of making the first down is not that much lower than the chance of making the field goal (about 65% for the field goal to 50% for making the first down, and if the distance is closer to one yard than two, they are approximately even). Moreover, with 2:36 left, it's especially good to go for the first down, because if it is converted, the Pats will almost surely not get the ball back the rest of the half. This is significant: kicking a field goal means that the best case for the Steelers is gaining 3 points. In the worst case the Steelers lose 4 points--- if the Pats score a quick touchdown. With the Patriots potent offense, they are highly likely to get into field goal range (which they did), and at the half, the Steelers ended up right where they were before the field goal attempt. As we have pointed out in prior columns. teams should more often try to win with their offense.
The second half was not too interesting from a VF perspective: the Pats started with an 80% VF, which went to 89% and then 95% after the flea-flicker touchdown from Brady to Gaffney and the Brady to Welker touchdown, respectively. After that the Steelers embarked on a drive from their own 43 to the Pats' 1 yard line, which ended when the Pats stuffed Ward on a 4th and 1 end-around. This drive was noteworthy only in that it barely increased the Steelers' VF (at any point during the drive). The Steelers started at 4% and never got above 6%. This is because of the large lead and lateness in the game---even with a touchdown, Pittsburgh would have been down two scores.