Ravens allow Pats to escape
» Posted by GridIronMine on December 5, 2007«
This article appears in the Patriots Football Weekly and PFW online. The VF percentages quoted in this article refer to the graph presented in the hardcopy of the PFW, which uses team-dependent VF. The online tools use the team-independent (or NFL average) VF.
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The Patriots started week 13, as usual, as a heavy favorite over the Ravens. GridIronMine's Victory Forecast (VF) system at the opening kick showed the Pats as having a 94% chance of winning. Surprisingly, after being severely tested last week against the Eagles, the Patriots were taken to the wire again. GridIronMine.com certainly did not expect the Ravens to play as well as they did.
Because the Pats were overwhelming favorites at the beginning of the game, the Ravens spent the first half primarily keeping the Pats' VF away from 99%---which most teams struggle to do given the fact that the Patriots are usually heavy favorites.
Just before the half, a key play was the Ed Reed interception of a Brady pass and subsequent 33 yard return and fumble. Had Reed not fumbled, this play would have given the Ravens an 8% increase in VF. The fumble itself gave the Pats an 8% increase in VF. In other words, the play broke even in VF---even though the Pats lost 8 yards on the play, they retained first down and the half was close enough that VF assumed the Pats would simply run out the clock---which they subsequently did.
After kicking off to start the second half, the Pats' VF stood at 82%. We note that while the score was tied half, just as the score is of course tied at the opening kickoff, the Pats' VF is lower at the start of the second half because the game is half over and the Pats have not taken care of business.
The Ravens scored on their next possession to move ahead 17-10, and the Pats immediately answered with a touchdown of their own. The first interesting play on this drive was a 3rd and 2, where the Pats only got one yard, and lost 7% in VF (because they didn't get the first down). This was followed by the Patriots converting on 4th down, which gave them back the 7% in VF that they lost on the previous play.
After the Ravens scored on the next drive to go up 24-17, the the teams traded possessions, with the Ravens' ending on an interception by Sanders plus a 42 yard return, for a 12% increase in VF. The Pats got an additional 12% on the short pass to Maroney that he ran for 43 yards, on a drive that ended with a field goal by Gostkowski.
The teams traded the ball without scoring, and the Pats finally took over the ball at their own 27 with 3:30 to go, and only a 30% VF. They would need a touchdown to win, and a touchdown they got. However, it was not without several key interesting plays (and a bit of good fortune). The Pats had a 4th and 1 play from the Ravens' 30 yard line. First, the Ravens called a timeout on a play where they actually had a Brady sneak stopped. Then, the Pats appeared to be stopped again, except there was a dead ball false start penalty on Hochstein. This penalty cost the Pats 10% VF (because 4th and 6 is so much more difficult to convert than 4th and 1). However, it appeared that the Ravens had the play stopped; if it had counted, the Pats' VF would have dropped to 7%.
On the 4th and 6, Brady converted on a run plus a 5 yard penalty, which gave the Pats the ball on the Ravens' 18 with 1:38 to go. This increased the Pats' VF by a whopping 44% to 62%. At this point, GridIronMine.com expects the Pats to win---plenty of time is left, they are only down by 4, and have a first down. However, following an incomplete on 3rd down, NE's VF slipped to 38%. The incomplete pass on 4th down dropped it down to 1% because the Ravens (would have) had the ball with less than one minute remaining; they could have just taken a knee to win. But a holding penalty on Winborne gave the Pats new life and a huge VF increase of 72%. Wild swings in VF such as these are commonplace in a close game that comes down to the last drive. After the Brady to Gaffney TD, the Pats' VF stood at 85%, because the Ravens still had one last chance, which ended on a Hail Mary pass that was stopped at the three yard line.